INDIAN ECONOMY A FEW POINTS NO.4 - SOURCE MOGAN & STANLEY

 

INDIAN ECONOMY – A FEW POINTS –MORGAN & STANLEY

India’s GDP is likely to surpass US$7.5trn by 2031, more than double current levels, making it the third-largest economy and adding about US$500bn per annum on an incremental basis over the decade.

India's market capitalization will likely grow by over 11% annually, to US$10trn, in the coming decade.

We estimate that manufacturing's share of GDP will rise to 21% by 2031, implying an incremental U$1trn manufacturing opportunity.

We expect India’s global export market share to more than double to 4.5% by 2031, providing an incremental US$1.2trn export opportunity.

India’s services exports will almost treble to US$527bn (from US$178bn in 2021) over the next decade.

Credit to GDP rises from 57% to 100%, implying compound annual growth in credit of 17% over 10 years.

 

🇮🇳India's per-capita income rises from US$2,278 now to US$5,242in 2031, setting the stage for a discretionary spending boom.

🇮🇳The number of households earning in excess of US$35,000/year is likely to rise fivefold in the coming decade, to over 25mn.

🇮🇳US$1.1trn incremental retail opportunity in ten years. E-commerce penetration to

nearly double from 6.5% to 12.3% by 2031.

🇮🇳Internet users in India to increase from 650mn to 960mn while online shoppers will grow from 250mn to 700mn over the next 10 years.

🇮🇳25% of incremental global car sales over 2021-2030 will be from India,and we

expect 30% of 2030 PV sales to be EVs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

India should hit a major inflection point for the next residential property boom in 2030 – a confluence of high per-capita income, a mid-30s median age, and higher urbanization.

🇮🇳India’s workforce in the technology services sector to more than double from 5.1mnin 2021 to 12.2mn in 2031, leading to an increase in office absorption from 32-35msf pa to a run-rate of 45-50msf over the next 5-10 years.

🇮🇳Healthcare penetration in India can rise from 30-40% now to 60-70%; implying

400mn new entrants to the formal healthcare system.

🇮🇳The defense budget (US$18bn) is growing steadily (10% CAGR) – traditionally there has been large import dependence (about 60%) but there is now a strong thrust towards local manufacturing.

 

 

 

AADHAR Success

🇮🇳1.3bn Aadhaar cards issued, over 50mn daily authentications, over 5mn daily eKYC queries

🇮🇳UPI processes 4.5bn payments a month,valued at US$100bn. India handles more real-time payments between businesses than any other country, accounting for over 40% of such payments worldwide.

🇮🇳The Aadhaar-enabled payment system, or AEPS, does several million transactions each month valued at over Rs250bn.

🇮🇳Cumulative direct benefit transfers of over US$300bn to Aadhaar-linked bank

accounts (Jan Dhan).

Fastag highway toll system which collects about Rs1.3bn/day and is allowing the government to recycle road assets.   Source : Morgan Stanley