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INDIAN ECONOMY A FEW POINTS NO.4 - SOURCE MOGAN & STANLEY



 

INDIAN ECONOMY – A FEW POINTS –MORGAN & STANLEY

India’s GDP is likely to surpass US$7.5trn by 2031, more than double current levels, making it the third-largest economy and adding about US$500bn per annum on an incremental basis over the decade.

India's market capitalization will likely grow by over 11% annually, to US$10trn, in the coming decade.

We estimate that manufacturing's share of GDP will rise to 21% by 2031, implying an incremental U$1trn manufacturing opportunity.

We expect India’s global export market share to more than double to 4.5% by 2031, providing an incremental US$1.2trn export opportunity.

India’s services exports will almost treble to US$527bn (from US$178bn in 2021) over the next decade.

Credit to GDP rises from 57% to 100%, implying compound annual growth in credit of 17% over 10 years.

 

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณIndia's per-capita income rises from US$2,278 now to US$5,242in 2031, setting the stage for a discretionary spending boom.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณThe number of households earning in excess of US$35,000/year is likely to rise fivefold in the coming decade, to over 25mn.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณUS$1.1trn incremental retail opportunity in ten years. E-commerce penetration to

nearly double from 6.5% to 12.3% by 2031.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณInternet users in India to increase from 650mn to 960mn while online shoppers will grow from 250mn to 700mn over the next 10 years.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ25% of incremental global car sales over 2021-2030 will be from India,and we

expect 30% of 2030 PV sales to be EVs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

India should hit a major inflection point for the next residential property boom in 2030 – a confluence of high per-capita income, a mid-30s median age, and higher urbanization.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณIndia’s workforce in the technology services sector to more than double from 5.1mnin 2021 to 12.2mn in 2031, leading to an increase in office absorption from 32-35msf pa to a run-rate of 45-50msf over the next 5-10 years.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณHealthcare penetration in India can rise from 30-40% now to 60-70%; implying

400mn new entrants to the formal healthcare system.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณThe defense budget (US$18bn) is growing steadily (10% CAGR) – traditionally there has been large import dependence (about 60%) but there is now a strong thrust towards local manufacturing.

 

 

 

AADHAR Success

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ1.3bn Aadhaar cards issued, over 50mn daily authentications, over 5mn daily eKYC queries

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณUPI processes 4.5bn payments a month,valued at US$100bn. India handles more real-time payments between businesses than any other country, accounting for over 40% of such payments worldwide.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณThe Aadhaar-enabled payment system, or AEPS, does several million transactions each month valued at over Rs250bn.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณCumulative direct benefit transfers of over US$300bn to Aadhaar-linked bank

accounts (Jan Dhan).

Fastag highway toll system which collects about Rs1.3bn/day and is allowing the government to recycle road assets.   Source : Morgan Stanley


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